Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?
14
110Ṁ281
Dec 31
44%
chance

  • Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The decrease will be measured by comparing final market close prices. The comparison for each quarter in 2025 will be as follows:

    • Q1 2025: Close price of December 31, 2024 to the close price of March 31, 2025.

    • Q2 2025: Close price of March 31, 2025 to the close price of June 30, 2025.

    • Q3 2025: Close price of June 30, 2025 to the close price of September 30, 2025.

    • Q4 2025: Close price of September 30, 2025 to the close price of December 31, 2025.

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Please clarify if this is from high to low or from open to close or some other measure

@Cactus the best method weve found is to only compare the final market close prices. So in this case it would be the close price of the day before the q started to the close price on the last day of the quarter.

So: prior year Dec31-Mar31

Mar31-June30

June30-Sep30

Sep30-Dec31

That way we have exact coverage, and mathematically we can combine intervals. q4(q3(q2(q1))) == y1

This is necessary because often one days close price isn't the same as the next days open price.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Ernie Thanks

Is this measured from high to low?

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