Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?
15
110Ṁ597
Dec 31
13%
chance

  • Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The decrease will be measured by comparing final market close prices. The comparison for each quarter in 2025 will be as follows:

    • Q1 2025: Close price of December 31, 2024 to the close price of March 31, 2025.

    • Q2 2025: Close price of March 31, 2025 to the close price of June 30, 2025.

    • Q3 2025: Close price of June 30, 2025 to the close price of September 30, 2025.

    • Q4 2025: Close price of September 30, 2025 to the close price of December 31, 2025.

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