Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2024? | Manifold

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2024?

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#S&P 500 Changes

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Peak to trough? Or start of quarter to end of quarter? Using EOD closing prices?

EOD to EOD day over day so that we capture the entire variation of the year as a series of relative percentage changes.

(i.e. why we don't do start of day to end of day, since that would miss changes that sometimes happen between today's eod and tomorrow's start of day)

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