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#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ27
3		Ṁ8
4		Ṁ7
5		Ṁ1

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Peak to trough? Or start of quarter to end of quarter? Using EOD closing prices?

EOD to EOD day over day so that we capture the entire variation of the year as a series of relative percentage changes.

(i.e. why we don't do start of day to end of day, since that would miss changes that sometimes happen between today's eod and tomorrow's start of day)

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Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?

14% chance

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?

15% chance

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?

21% chance

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

5% chance

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

6% chance

Will 2025 have two more single day 5% decreases of the S&P 500?

21% chance

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?

99% chance

Will the S&P 500 increase in every quarter of 2026?

28% chance

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