Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?

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2040

23%

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This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics: 1. Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund. If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion. 2. Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion. 3. The Nature Index. If this index is discontinued, then International Science Ranking takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves to N/A. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

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It's possible that when China's military is 10x stronger than US, it is still cheaper.

Do you really think US's military expenditures went to building weapons and armies? bruh

@Sss19971997 Also, Nature Index already passed in 2025 I believe

Interesting Question. Due to the long timeframe deep background effects will drown out short term changes in political leadership and policies. My expectation is that china will be more able and hungry to position itself strategically. Speed up of societal narrative conflict by social media is more directly adressed in China while the US and Europe follow with lots of internal conflict but without better solutions. This might change if western societies stumble upon a better solution and are capable to implement it (doubt here). Caveat is age of population, but we will see.

My expectation of No is based on me expecting that they will continue to have repressive policies which promote 'brain drain'. Their best intellectual talent has a high probability of using that talent to leave for other countries.