Will Starship reach space before Vulcan?
45
830Ṁ21k
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
YES

Reaching an altitude of 100km counts as reaching space. The rockets don't need to get into orbit.

The intention is for this market to be about the timing of the first flight of Vulcan vs the first OFT of a full stack Starship. Both are aiming to launch in March 2023.

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predictedYES

Whodathunk a year ago that Starship would launch twice before Vulcan could go once :D

Should resolve YES.

predictedNO

Vulcan has a launch date of Dec 24 this year

predictedYES

How would this resolve if

https://spacenews.com/first-vulcan-launch-further-delayed-for-centaur-modifications/

First Vulcan launch further delayed for Centaur modifications
The inaugural launch of United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan Centaur rocket faces new delays to make “minor reinforcements” to part of the Centaur upper stage.

Looks like they didn't reach 100km altitude yet, if I saw it correctly. Will, review, but probably we'll have to wait for the next test, or Vulcan!

predictedYES

Starship blew up the pad, Centaur blew up itself, for both it's unclear how long it's going to take to fix it. Pretty much 50/50 now — SpaceX iterates faster but the Centaur issue seemed less serious.

predictedYES

Related market about making a full orbit:

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