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https://x.com/ulalaunch/status/1716907348776894482?s=61&t=Yrzjd1It5D4tLxMc8bv7Yw

Extending this market out beyond Dec 31 if everyone is okay with it. Seems reasonable that neither rockets will reach orbit this year and I’d prefer to just push the resolution date out until one goes orbital.

Related market that doesn't require a full orbit:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/when-will-united-launch-alliances-vulcan-rocket-fly/
Berger suggests NET May 2023 for a Vulcan launch. Starship OFT currently looks like March 2023 but probably won't be a full orbit. So the question is probably equivalent to "Will Vulcan or the second Starship successfully launch first", conditional on the first launch going well. I don't know of any clear indication when Starship OFT 2 would be, but gut feeling says it would be later than May. Then again, Vulcan might also very well slip to later, and SpaceX probably does want to use up their 5 launches from Starbase per year if possible.

@Mqrius Last I read Starship’s full stack launch is meant to complete an orbit then soft land in the ocean. Has that changed?

@Thagliou They'll probably use a suborbital trajectory, where it completes most of an entire orbit but reenters slightly before it makes it all the way around. That way they don't need a reentry burn, but the place where they reenter is still known ahead of time even when they lose control. It still tests the heatshield with basically full reentry conditions.

It's a little unclear if they're still aiming for this, we might know more once they get an FAA license. But even if they're not going for a suborbital trajectory, they probably will only put it in an orbit trajectory but do an reentry burn before it actually does an entire orbit. Either case doesn't count for this market.

@Mqrius Ahh yep you’re right. I didn’t catch this https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=273481