Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]
3
1kṀ311
2026
23%
chance

Resolves YES if Waymo's public driverless robotaxi service is "suspended" for 30 continuous days across California before the close time.

Resolves YES if ONE of the following ("suspension criteria") is true for EACH AND EVERY Waymo service area across CA at every point during a single continuous 30 day period:

  • Not public - Waymo stops giving rides to the members of the public (possibly limiting service to just Alphabet/Waymo employees/friends/family)

  • Not driverless - Waymo uses safety drivers on all trips

  • Not a robotaxi - Waymo stops charging for all rides, i.e. if their CA CPUC permission is revoked

Resolves NO at close time if this does not happen.

Current CA service areas are the SF Bay Area and the Los Angeles area. Any new service areas must meet the suspension criteria for the 30 day period if they come into service before close time.

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Since the chance of Waymo catastrophically ceasing operations (like Cruise did) seems lower and lower, I'm changing my yearly Waymo-bear market from "will Waymo be abandoned" to this.

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