Resolves to the number of US states (0–50) where a qualifying legal measure blocks Waymo or Tesla Robotaxi on December 31, 2027. DC and territories don't count.
Timing: Only the legal situation on December 31, 2027 matters. A measure must be in effect on that date. Temporary hurdles that are lifted before then don't count. These include moratoriums that expire, permit suspensions that are reversed, laws that are repealed or struck down, and delays that are resolved. Measures already in effect when the market is created count if they are still in effect on that date. A measure that has been signed but doesn't take effect until 2028 does not count.
Federal block → N/A: If on December 31, 2027 a federal measure blocks Waymo or Tesla Robotaxi nationwide, this market resolves N/A. Such measures include a federal statute, regulation, NHTSA order, or court order. Federal actions that don't halt service nationwide don't trigger N/A, and neither do federal blocks lifted before that date. Examples are recalls fixed by software updates and a temporary grounding that has ended.
Covered services
Waymo's driverless ride-hail service, including when offered through partners like Uber or Lyft.
Tesla's driverless ride-hail service (Robotaxi), in any vehicle (Model Y, Cybercab, etc.).
All other companies (Zoox, May Mobility, etc.) are ignored. Tesla FSD on privately owned cars is ignored.
A state counts if, for Waymo or Tesla (blocking one is enough):
Statewide: a state statute, regulation, executive order, agency order, or court order legally prevents the company from offering driverless ride-hail service anywhere in the state, or
Local: cities or counties whose ordinances block the service have a combined population of at least 9% of the state's population. This uses the latest Census Bureau estimates at resolution, and overlapping jurisdictions are not double-counted.
Old statutes count too. A legislature that simply doesn't amend existing law counts if that law is a de facto ban on driverless operation. This applies when a statute imposes a requirement a driverless vehicle can't meet, such as keeping a hand on the steering wheel or having a licensed human in the driver's seat. It also applies when the state's DMV, attorney general, or courts have formally interpreted existing law as barring driverless operation. It does not matter when the statute was enacted or whether it was written with self-driving cars in mind.
New York counts as blocking as long as VTL § 1226, which requires a hand on the steering wheel at all times, remains in effect with no legal path to driverless commercial ride-hail service. Testing permits that require a human behind the wheel don't change this. Background: Gov. Hochul withdrew her 2026 proposal to amend the rule.
Counts as a block (if in effect on Dec 31, 2027):
Requiring a human safety driver or operator on board
An old statute that functions as a de facto ban (see above)
A moratorium
A suspended or revoked permit that is required to operate
A rule that blocks one company but not the other
Does not count:
The company choosing not to operate in a state where it is legally allowed to, or never applying for a required permit
Statements by officials, Musk, Tesla, or Waymo blaming "hostility," and also leaks, rumors, or bills that were never enacted
Restrictions that still allow service: geofences, airport or school-zone exclusions, fleet caps, fees, insurance or reporting rules, weather or time-of-day limits
Banning one vehicle model when the company can still run the service with another. For example, a ban on cars without steering wheels doesn't block Robotaxi if Model Ys can still operate without a driver present.
State codes that merely use the word "driver" or are silent on autonomous vehicles, unless the requirement is one a driverless vehicle can't meet or has been formally interpreted as a ban (see above)
Edge cases: Situations like a permit application still pending on Dec 31, 2027 after many months of review, a permit denied on technical grounds, or a cap so low it's effectively a ban will be resolved case-by-case in the spirit of the question. The test is whether an actual legal document prevents the service from operating.
Sources: Resolution may draw on AV-law trackers such as NCSL's and IIHS's, along with news reports. Traders are encouraged to post evidence about specific states in the comments.
1,000