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MANIFOLD
Will Isaac King misresolve a market during 2023?
16
Ṁ330Ṁ4.4k
resolved Apr 6
Resolved
YES

Need not be deliberate, only that, according to myself and what I expect would be the opinion of an intelligent, neutral observer, Isaac King misresolved a market.

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Admin Resolved

predictedYES

@DeanValentine resolves YES

isaac asked the admins to re resolve it to N/A after a slightly hastily resolve to yes

Here's one that could potentially count:

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/this-market-resolves-to-whatever-pe

A user checked the API and told me what percentage it should resolve to. They seemed trustworthy, so I said I'd accept their percentage, and gave people a day to express disagreement. No one did, so I resolved to that percentage. Shortly afterwards, they told me their percentage had been incorrect. (I don't know whether this was an intentional ploy on their part or an honest mistake, though either way I won't be trusting them as much for market resolutions in the future.)

I'm not sure whether this should count as incorrect. I gave all market participants about 21 hours to notify me of any errors with my suggested resolution, and none of them did so. But apparently the resolution did end up being incorrect. (At least, according to that user. I haven't checked their math myself, which I would recommend doing before you resolve this market to YES based on this.)

I lean towards saying "not incorrect", since there's an implied "speak now or forever hold your peace" when I make a "this market will resolve to X unless somebody says something" declaration. But I don't think it would be unreasonable to count it.

Also would an accidental misresolve count? even if he were to reimburse anyone who lost on it?

I feel like this should be higher than /IsaacKing/will-i-make-it-to-the-end-of-2023-w-4f73b171eed7 as I'd believe Isaac is less likely to think something was misresolved compared to you.

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