There's a tolerance of 2 percentage points. So if there's a point in time where the market varied between 50.1% and 51.9%, that still counts as an uninturrupted stretch. (And I'd resolve to the midpoint of 51%.)
To be clear, this is about the longest uninterrupted stretch at a certain percentage, not the total added up over the whole lifetime of the market.
Closes at midnight Pacific time on February 1st.
1,000
3.00@XComhghall I can't resolve to a fractional percentage, so looks like 61%. Any disagreements before I resolve?
@IsaacKing The variation between 60% and 62% was the displayed rounded probability. Exactly, the probability varied at [59.5%, 61.5%) from 2023-01-30 21:09:22 to 2023-02-01 00:09:22. The market should have resolved to 60.499999999%, or 60%.
@jack I am not sure, but I think so. I thought that if it were 61.5%, it'd round to 62%. I placed the bets so that they were respectively M1 below what would make it 62%, and M1 above what would make it 59%. And yes, 60.5% was imprecise, I think.
@Conflux Bro I've been wanting to say this since I first saw the market but I didn't want to be that guy
@Simon1551 Based on my knowledge of Isaac King, I think he's likely to be appreciative and not offended!
...though I'd probably have said this for a different market creator too
@Conflux I feel like I criticise Isaac a lot already, so nit-picking over something so small could sour things, I personally wouldn't mind if it was done to me but I have no idea what he thinks about it so I rather not say anything. I'm probably just overthinking this too...
@Simon1551 Pretty confident a nitpicky correction wouldn't sour things. Let's see if we can find out :)
@Boklam OK I probably went overboard here but let's find out...
https://manifold.markets/Boklam/would-isaac-king-be-annoyed-if-some