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Will the DR Congo re-impose a full cobalt export suspension by March 31, 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ1
2027
10%
chance

This market resolves YES if, after the October 16, 2025 lifting and on or before March 31, 2027, the DR Congo government or its strategic minerals regulator (ARECOMS) announces a new country-wide suspension of cobalt exports, like the one in force from February to October 2025, otherwise NO.

YES if: a full suspension is announced on or before March 31, 2027, regardless of its stated duration or a later effective date. A suspension covering cobalt hydroxide and concentrates counts even if metal or artisanal flows are exempt. NO if: no full suspension is announced. Changes to export quotas do not count.

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. ARECOMS / DRC government official announcements

  2. Reuters / Bloomberg reporting

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