Will China restrict exports of tellurium on December 31, 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China maintains an active export restriction (prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement under UNCTAD MAST P3 classification) on tellurium (HS 280450) or tellurides (HS 284290). Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 88% chance (2 traders, as of Oct 3, 2026).

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