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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of high-purity magnesium on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ1
Dec 31
75%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement scoped exactly to high purity magnesium under item 1C228 or qualifying magnesium and magnesium alloy powder under item 1C111.b.1.c. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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