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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of erbium on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ4
Dec 31
67%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China MOFCOM export licensing requirements on erbium and erbium compounds are actively enforced. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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