Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if by 11:59 pm ET on December 20, 2025, Chinese authorities (e.g., MOFCOM/GACC), company exchange filings, or two credible outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, SCMP) report that the temporary rare‑earth export licenses granted in June 2025 to suppliers serving any of GM, Ford, or Stellantis have been renewed/extended or replaced with new licenses that permit continued exports beyond the original term. Verification links will include the original June 2025 reporting and any subsequent renewal notices or company disclosures. (reuters.com)

• “Extension” includes a formal renewal of the same license or issuance of a follow‑on license that maintains export authorization without a gap; at least one such supplier license must be extended for YES.

• Resolves NO if no such extension is reported by the deadline. If China broadly removes the licensing requirement for the relevant items without explicitly renewing these suppliers’ permissions, this resolves NO unless a renewal/extension was reported prior to the change.

Sources to check: MOFCOM announcements, company filings on SZSE/HKEX, and major outlets covering renewals. Reference context: MOFCOM’s April 4, 2025 export‑control notice; initial temporary licenses reported June 6, 2025. (english.mofcom.gov.cn)

Background

• On April 4, 2025, MOFCOM imposed export controls requiring licenses for medium/heavy rare earths and related magnets. (english.mofcom.gov.cn)

• On June 6, 2025, Reuters reported China issued temporary rare‑earth export licenses—some six months in duration—to suppliers serving the “Big Three” U.S. automakers (GM, Ford, Stellantis). A leading Chinese magnet maker (JL MAG) also disclosed newly granted export permits including to the U.S. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• This market treats “US‑linked manufacturers” as the automakers identified in the June 6 Reuters piece (GM, Ford, Stellantis). Stellantis is often grouped with the U.S. “Big Three” despite being domiciled in the Netherlands. (reuters.com)

• Licenses are firm‑ and shipment‑specific and often non‑public; thus, resolution relies on official notices, exchange filings, or reporting by major outlets.

• Reports in June indicated six‑month validity on some licenses, implying potential renewal decisions near December 2025. (reuters.com)