The US DoD has guarantee a minimum price for the RARE EARTHs coming from MP Materials of $110. Will it raise this minimum price by eOY 2025?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) announces an increase in the minimum price guarantee above $110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products supplied by MP Materials. Official announcements from the DoD or MP Materials, as well as reputable news sources, will serve as the basis for resolution.

Background

In July 2025, the DoD entered into a 10-year agreement with MP Materials, establishing a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products. This initiative aims to reduce reliance on foreign sources and strengthen the domestic rare earth supply chain. (nasdaq.com)

Considerations

The current agreement spans a decade, providing long-term stability. Any adjustments to the price floor would likely be influenced by market dynamics, geopolitical factors, and strategic considerations. Monitoring official communications from the DoD and MP Materials, as well as industry news, will be essential for tracking potential changes.