MANIFOLD
Will the Jimmy Apples AGI tweet stand a test of time
34
Ṁ1kṀ6k
resolved Sep 25
Resolved
NO

Resolves to a poll in a year.

Market context
AI
X (Twitter)
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ359
2Ṁ338
3Ṁ138
4Ṁ135
5Ṁ91

People are also trading

Will we get AGI before 2029?
22% chance
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?
99% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2028?
65% chance
Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
32% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?
86% chance
Will I make a tweet about AI with more likes than my tweet about beavers by end of 2027?
47% chance
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
89% chance
Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?
32% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
40% chance
Will "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Sort by:

Shouldn't of been resolved, still has 2025 in his bio and now 4.5 and 5 confirmed to release this year

https://manifold.markets/MikhailDoroshenko/did-jimmy-apples-agi-tweet-stand-th?play=true

What did he say in his tweet ?

@AitchKay Oh, there was a link to it, but apparently, he deleted the tweet. It was about Agi.

@MikhailDoroshenko He deleted it? Does that mean he was just lying/trolling?

The train has left the station

It's clear internal testers at MS already Believe. It's also known that early pre-lobotomy versions are measurably more capable than the final public release. Hype train's already left the station!

@alexkropivny Can you expand more on your comment. It is very important for me. What does your screenshot imply? What is MS? Sorry for being uninformed, but it is very important for me. Please.

This guy MAY have insider information (he correctly predicted the date of GPT-4's launch). However, he also has a history of wild, unrealistic bullshit.

  • claims that a "125-trillion' version of GPT-4 exists (not stated whether this means params or training tokens.)

  • claims GPT-4 will be able to generate videos

  • claims GPT-5 exists (!) and was trained in October 2022 (!!)

Would bet more but I don't know what "AGI" implies.

https://web.archive.org/web/20230228200635/https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy

Jimmy Apples (@apples_jimmy) / Twitter
Never seen a man naked, but I've seen a lot of cherry pies under moonlight.

People are also trading

Will we get AGI before 2029?
22% chance
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?
99% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2028?
65% chance
Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
32% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?
86% chance
Will I make a tweet about AI with more likes than my tweet about beavers by end of 2027?
47% chance
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
89% chance
Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?
32% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
40% chance
Will "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy