MANIFOLD
Will any OpenAI model win a chess match against World Champion by the end of 2024?
17
Ṁ1kṀ2.1k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

Using internet search, code execution, external programs, chess engines, etc. is not allowed.

Market context
Technical AI Timelines
Chess
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ35
2Ṁ28
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ20
5Ṁ15
Sort by:

If they develop something like AlphaZero, this counts YES, right? It doesn't have to be a LLM.

@rotatingpaguro Correct. Anything goes.

People are also trading

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
45% chance
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
57% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?
52% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?
60% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
76% chance
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?
70% chance
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
60% chance
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
68% chance
Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?
66% chance
Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)
34% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy