Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before the end of December 31, 2030, China enters an economic recession that is widely attributed to industrial overcapacity.

For the purposes of this market, an economic recession in China is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:

1. Negative GDP Growth: China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports negative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (either quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year) for at least two consecutive quarters.

2. Institutional/Multilateral Declaration: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or a consensus of leading financial news outlets (specifically Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Financial Times) explicitly declares that China has entered a "recession" (including a "balance sheet recession" or "structural recession").

To satisfy the condition "induced by overcapacity":

• Official statements, IMF/World Bank reports, or major financial media must explicitly cite "overcapacity," "excess capacity" (产能过剩), or a domestic manufacturing glut/unsustainable export model as a primary or major contributing factor to the recession or severe economic contraction.

If China experiences an economic recession before the end of 2030 that is entirely attributed to unrelated shocks (such as a military conflict, natural disaster, or a new pandemic) without overcapacity cited as a major structural cause, this market will resolve to NO.

If no recession meeting the above criteria occurs before the end of December 31, 2030, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

China's post-pandemic economic strategy has relied heavily on expanding its high-tech manufacturing capacity and driving up industrial exports, particularly in green technologies like electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels. This has led to massive trade surpluses—reaching nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025—and triggered pushback from trading partners in the US and Europe, who accuse China of state-subsidized "overcapacity" dumping.

While China’s official real GDP growth rates remain positive, domestic structural headwinds—including a protracted property market slump, low consumer confidence, and persistent deflationary pressures—have led some economists to argue that the country is already in a "balance sheet recession". This market tracks whether these combined pressures will culminate in a recognized economic recession before 2030.

This description was generated by AI, but reviewed and verified by me. Since this resolution is subject to some significant level of arbitrariness, I will refrain from betting on it myself.