Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if 72 hours after Israel acceptance, Hamas publicly and explicitly states that it “accepts” President Donald Trump’s September 29, 2025 Gaza peace plan. Acceptance must be:
Issued by an official Hamas channel (e.g., Political Bureau statement, named spokesperson on Hamas’ official outlets) or
Reported by at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) quoting Hamas as accepting Trump’s September 29 plan.
Phrases such as “welcome,” “support in principle,” “ready to discuss/consider,” or acceptance “with conditions” that materially alter the plan do not count.
Background
On September 29, 2025, the White House released a 20‑point proposal to end the Israel–Hamas war, including an immediate ceasefire upon mutual agreement, the return of all hostages within 72 hours of Israel’s acceptance, staged IDF withdrawal, demilitarization of Gaza, and a transitional technocratic governance overseen by an international “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump (Tony Blair named as a member).
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It would take me some time to find the exact hour when Israel officially accepted the plan. I will assume the communication by Netanyahu was around 15:00 (New York) Monday 29th September. If someone knows the exact time and has a verifiable link from a reliable source, please correct me.
Therefore, the resolution time for this market would be 15:00 (GMT-4) Thursday 2nd of October.
The “three to four days” deadline given by Trump on Tuesday will not affect the resolution time of this market. The “two or three days at most” requested by Hamas to respond, as mentioned today by the press, will also not change the resolution time.
I will keep the original “Resolves YES if 72 hours after Israel acceptance”, as I don't want to change the rules in the middle of the game.