A bit subjective. The main risk is that I'm unlikely to be a dominant intelligence in 2040 and so I'll be unable to resolve the bet.
@MalachiteEagle Thanks for this question. The scenario that you propose, while possible, has never happened in the history of the universe: the most intelligent species has always been the dominant species.
If this does happen, I'll simply ask the superintelligent AI how to resolve the bet.
Several things to clarify:
1) By different are you focusing only on the difference in intellectual ability, or a combination of other things including biology, psychology, etc.?
2) How are you measuring intellectual ability or whatever relevant metric?
3) How are you defining dominant intelligence as an entity? Would a massive network of AIs comprising of millions of chips be considered a single entity? For that matter, would it be compared against the collective intelligence of humanity as a whole?
4) What about human beings with AI augmentation, such as the 2040 version of Neurolink.
@Maniuser I appreciate the nuance.
1. I am focusing on intellectual ability.
2. I am not measuring it. This is intuitive. But let's say that if the dominant intelligence has an average SAT score of 1500, this bet resolves to YES.
3. Yes, a massive network comprising of millions of chips would be considered a single entity. I don't have a clear definition of 'entity'.
4. An augmented human counts as a new type of entity. So if a human enhanced with AI and biology can smoke a modern human, this bet resolves to YES.