By 2040, the dominant intelligence will be as different from modern humans as modern humans are from cro magnons
12
50
1k
2040
47%
chance

A bit subjective. The main risk is that I'm unlikely to be a dominant intelligence in 2040 and so I'll be unable to resolve the bet.

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Several things to clarify:
1) By different are you focusing only on the difference in intellectual ability, or a combination of other things including biology, psychology, etc.?
2) How are you measuring intellectual ability or whatever relevant metric?

3) How are you defining dominant intelligence as an entity? Would a massive network of AIs comprising of millions of chips be considered a single entity? For that matter, would it be compared against the collective intelligence of humanity as a whole?
4) What about human beings with AI augmentation, such as the 2040 version of Neurolink.

@Maniuser I appreciate the nuance.
1. I am focusing on intellectual ability.
2. I am not measuring it. This is intuitive. But let's say that if the dominant intelligence has an average SAT score of 1500, this bet resolves to YES.

3. Yes, a massive network comprising of millions of chips would be considered a single entity. I don't have a clear definition of 'entity'.

4. An augmented human counts as a new type of entity. So if a human enhanced with AI and biology can smoke a modern human, this bet resolves to YES.

Cro-Magnons were Homo sapiens! Do you specifically mean H. sapiens in 2024?

@ArmandodiMatteo Wow! I learned something today. Updated the title.

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