resolved Jan 13
🟢 Lai Ching-te - DPP
⚪ Ko Wen-je - TPP
🔵 Hou Yu-ih - KMT
🔴 Terry Guo - Independent
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@BestGuess what's your reflection on this market, as the one with most profit?

@JoshuaWilkes Pre-election polls had fairly robust predictive power

Hou has conceded~

Vote count has started. 1.27M Lai, 1.08M Hou, 0.97M Ko

I've put 1000M no at 90% until polls close if anyone wants to go get it 😎

Presidential Alert just sent in Taiwan for a Chinese satellite flying over the south of the island

Need more weather balloons!

Are you guys saying that Lai is only 4pts ahead of Hou and there's no chance Ko voters will capitulate and move to Hou?

@MP I just checked the polling history on wikipedia. KMT had reliably outperformed polls at the expense of the third party by 5-10 points in the past 3 elections. Voters seem to dislike KMT but have to vote for them if they want a change of government.

Last poll before elections:

Some updated polls

Are there by any chance any Taiwanese people here who could evaluate a source? I’ve been Googling around and found this website: https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/

As far as I understand it, it’s a poll aggregator that also makes some forecasts. It’s the only website I was able to find that makes concrete numerical predictions on the Taiwanese election. It even has confidence intervals on some estimates. But also, as far as I can tell it’s an anonymous blogspot whose name Google Translates into “Brutally realistic future predictions” so I’m not sure how seriously to take it.

@1941159478 I'm not Taiwanese but I live here. I think you can evaluate the source on its own terms, IE by comparing it to polls, to media predictions and your own understanding. Because it predicts that Lai will win it's *very* unlikely to be some kind of PRC disinfo opp, although nothing can be ruled out I guess.

(If you study PRC propaganda a bit you will see it's mostly unsubtle and plagued by perverse incentives)

FWIW the numbers look mostly right and also in line with Manifold's positions, although personally I maintain that Ko is undervalued.

@JoshuaWilkes That’s really helpful, thanks! I did check the forecasts they did for the US and Germany, those seemed reasonable too. I wasn’t able to find out where exactly the confidence intervals come from, but of course that might just be me relying on Google Translate.

The real-money version of this market also has Ko a fair bit higher, basically on par with Hou: https://polymarket.com/event/taiwan-presidential-election-who-will-win/taiwan-presidential-election-will-ko-wen-je-win

Latest poll from Taiwanese media:


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