General information:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election
1,000
3.00
@MP I just checked the polling history on wikipedia. KMT had reliably outperformed polls at the expense of the third party by 5-10 points in the past 3 elections. Voters seem to dislike KMT but have to vote for them if they want a change of government.
Are there by any chance any Taiwanese people here who could evaluate a source? I’ve been Googling around and found this website: https://tsjh301.blogspot.com/
As far as I understand it, it’s a poll aggregator that also makes some forecasts. It’s the only website I was able to find that makes concrete numerical predictions on the Taiwanese election. It even has confidence intervals on some estimates. But also, as far as I can tell it’s an anonymous blogspot whose name Google Translates into “Brutally realistic future predictions” so I’m not sure how seriously to take it.
@1941159478 I'm not Taiwanese but I live here. I think you can evaluate the source on its own terms, IE by comparing it to polls, to media predictions and your own understanding. Because it predicts that Lai will win it's *very* unlikely to be some kind of PRC disinfo opp, although nothing can be ruled out I guess.
(If you study PRC propaganda a bit you will see it's mostly unsubtle and plagued by perverse incentives)
FWIW the numbers look mostly right and also in line with Manifold's positions, although personally I maintain that Ko is undervalued.
@JoshuaWilkes That’s really helpful, thanks! I did check the forecasts they did for the US and Germany, those seemed reasonable too. I wasn’t able to find out where exactly the confidence intervals come from, but of course that might just be me relying on Google Translate.
The real-money version of this market also has Ko a fair bit higher, basically on par with Hou: https://polymarket.com/event/taiwan-presidential-election-who-will-win/taiwan-presidential-election-will-ko-wen-je-win
2024 Taiwan presidential election poll
總統選舉民調 9/5-7
賴清德 Lai (DPP) 38.3% (+18.4)
侯友宜 Hou (KMT) 19.9%
柯文哲 Ko (TPP) 15.6%
郭台銘 Gou (independent) 9.4%
其他 other responses 16.8%
美麗島民調 Formosa Polling
http://my-formosa.com/DOC_198847.htm
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