On January 24, 2026, another civilian was killed by a DHS agent. What will happen this time?
This market will resolve following the same criteria as the market it copied: https://manifold.markets/GuyCohen/what-will-happen-as-a-result-of-the-ZUlNhtULns
Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any ICE killing of a civilian within the 30-day period will count as a result of the Minneapolis shooting, regardless of whether there is a direct causal connection to the original incident.
Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that current protests are fairly small compared to the Floyd ones and are more comparable to typical anti-ICE protests seen in 2025. This suggests a high bar for what would constitute "George Floyd-level protests" for resolution purposes.
Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): George Floyd-level protests will count for resolution purposes if they become violent, regardless of their size.
Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will consider actions by all DHS agents (including Border Patrol agents), not just ICE agents specifically.
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Reports so far indicate that Nurul Amin Shah Alam died on February 24, between around 5:30PM (when he was reportedly seen alive) and 8:29 when he was discovered dead.
By my counting, the "next 30 days" after Jan 24 ends on Feb 23, so this particular killing does not qualify.
We have also learned about some deaths in DHS custody in detention facilities, but I have not seen any new deaths reported where the person was killed in those 30 days.
I am going to resolve NO on "DHS kills another civilian."
@MichaelEdgar https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/28/us/minneapolis-shooting-ice-minnesota "Live Updates: 2 Federal Agents Who Shot Minneapolis Man Are Placed on Leave"
@MichaelEdgar by ICE do you mean all DHS agents or just ICE? The latest shooting was carried out by a border patrol agent.