There are currently, per news reports, somewhere between 2000 and 3000 ICE agents deployed to Minnesota as part of "Operation Metro Surge", which has been ongoing since early December. If on June 1, 2026, the best estimate available from mainstream news sources of the number of ICE agents still actively deployed in the state is less than 500, this question resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. Update 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The count will include CBP and other related agencies in addition to ICE agents when determining if the deployment has been substantially reduced below 500. Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For counting agents toward the 500 threshold: Other DHS agencies (beyond ICE and CBP) count only if the primary purpose of their deployment is immigration enforcement Agents performing non-enforcement roles (e.g., TSA doing passenger screening, or ICE agents not actively enforcing) do not count National Guard does not count unless members are actually making immigration arrests

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (33 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).

Will the ICE deployment in Minnesota be substantially reduced by June 1, 2026?

MANIFOLD

Will the ICE deployment in Minnesota be substantially reduced by June 1, 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ13k

May 31

95%

chance

ALL

There are currently, per news reports, somewhere between 2000 and 3000 ICE agents deployed to Minnesota as part of "Operation Metro Surge", which has been ongoing since early December. If on June 1, 2026, the best estimate available from mainstream news sources of the number of ICE agents still actively deployed in the state is less than 500, this question resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

Update 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The count will include CBP and other related agencies in addition to ICE agents when determining if the deployment has been substantially reduced below 500.

Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For counting agents toward the 500 threshold:
- Other DHS agencies (beyond ICE and CBP) count only if the primary purpose of their deployment is immigration enforcement
- Agents performing non-enforcement roles (e.g., TSA doing passenger screening, or ICE agents not actively enforcing) do not count
- National Guard does not count unless members are actually making immigration arrests

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will ICE kill a US Citizen by the End of April 2026?

48% chance

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

45% chance

When will the current Minneapolis/ICE news cycle end?

Will the DHS partial shutdown end by April 15, 2026?

32% chance

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

87% chance

What will happen as a result of the shooting of Renee Good in the next 2 Years?

Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms?

55% chance

Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?

18% chance

Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?

67% chance

How many people will ICE/CBP kill in 2026?

9.4

Sort by:

Are you intending to only count ICE, or CBP and other related agencies as well?

@EvanDaniel The latter

@NicholasWeininger Thanks! Do you have a complete list of agencies that are counted? Anything beyond CBP, like the rest of DHS, or the National Guard?

bought Ṁ100 NO

@NicholasWeininger bump on this ^

@prismatic Other DHS agencies will count if the primary purpose of their agents' deployment is immigration enforcement (so e.g. TSA agents doing passenger screening at MSP, or even a bunch of ICE agents hanging around MSP doing nothing, doesn't count). National Guard would not count unless they actually somehow have Guard members making immigration arrests.

Less than 500 would not be able to safely operate

@Waterfalls Why not? Doesn't the police force in the city have less than 600 officers?

@BodeyBaker at least one issue is me quoting city numbers and the question is for the state, but I'm still confused why that number wouldn't be able to safely operate

@BodeyBaker does police is kidnapping innocent people against the huge local organized disapproval?

@BodeyBaker 60 ICE agents were not able to arrest suspects in Somalian shopping mall the last week.

Were heavily outnumbered by locals

@Waterfalls I'm pretty skeptical of that.

Do you really think this level of outrage gets sustained for months?

If anything, reducing numbers seems like it'd be likely to calm the protests down.
If there are 3,000 ICE agents, and the government backs down by dropping it to, say, 400, are Minnesotans going to start violently attacking the remaining ones, giving the government an excuse to send more agents back?