MANIFOLD
What will happen as a result of the ICE shooting in Minneapolis in the next 30 days?
479
Ṁ4.8kṀ78k
resolved Feb 6
Resolved
YES
The ICE agent is put on leave
Resolved
YES
ICE kills another civilian
Resolved
NO
Jonathan Ross is fired
Resolved
NO
Jonathan Ross is charged by Minnesota authorities
Resolved
NO
George Floyd-level protests
Resolved
NO
Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota
Resolved
NO
A DHS agent is killed
Resolved
NO
Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis
Resolved
NO
Trump deploys active-duty military to Minnesota
Resolved
NO
Walz and/or Frey are indicted by the DOJ
Resolved
NO
A third civilian is killed by DHS

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any ICE killing of a civilian within the 30-day period will count as a result of the Minneapolis shooting, regardless of whether there is a direct causal connection to the original incident.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that current protests are fairly small compared to the Floyd ones and are more comparable to typical anti-ICE protests seen in 2025. This suggests a high bar for what would constitute "George Floyd-level protests" for resolution purposes.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): George Floyd-level protests will count for resolution purposes if they become violent, regardless of their size.

  • Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Border Patrol killings of civilians will count the same as ICE killings for the purpose of resolving "ICE kills another civilian."

  • Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purpose of resolving "ICE kills another civilian," ICE is being used as a catch-all term to describe all DHS officers on the mission, even if they are technically from other agencies (such as Border Patrol).

  • Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Border Patrol killings of civilians will count the same as ICE killings for the purpose of resolving "ICE kills another civilian."

  • Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that "ICE" in the answer option "ICE kills another civilian" was intended to mean federal agents broadly, not just ICE specifically. This confirms that killings by Border Patrol and other DHS officers on the mission will count for resolution purposes.

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Admin note related to the ICE options' "Yes" resolution:

I've been looking for ways to appropriately settle the disagreement on the ICE options. As noted below in the comments (and not to rehash this debate), the options resolved Yes though credible reporting lists the agent(s) who shot Alex Pretti were from USBP. In casual discourse, people often don't differentiate between the two entities though they are two different organisations under the Immigration Enforcement umbrella. The creator intended for this to be an all-encompassing term, while some traders read ICE at its most literal, referring to the agency/employer specifically.

Manifold does not have an option to automatically nullify and pay out both sides on an option or market.

>> Taking into account that this is a short-term market, the options have been resolved/paid out for some time, and the creator's intention, I will leave the options resolved Yes but I will pay out (maximum 1k mana) No holders manually. <<

I'm pinning this comment to highlight that there are times when, despite best intentions, some grey areas or differences of interpretation aren't clear until it comes time to resolve. These things happen! And they've happened for many of us when creating markets! This is a good opportunity for a reminder to glance at your markets (including any you're considering making or those you're in/considering taking a position) and if there may be alternative interpretations, especially on practical things, take a moment to clarify.

Thanks for the respectful debate, everyone. I'll work on sending Managrams today to the No holders.

@GuyCohen Why has this been resolved NO?

@Valerie is there a reason you think it should resolve Yes?

@Valerie protests as a response to George Floyd were in all 50 states and involved tens of millions of people. there have definitely been large protests against ICE since Renee Good's murder, but they weren't nearly at that scale.

@shankypanky It states that it will resolve YES if the protests become violent, regardless of size. Given multiple videos from these protests of violence towards ICE facilities and personnel, I feel like that qualifies. It’s fine if it doesn’t, I’m not peeved about it.

@Valerie ah, I see. sorry, I missed that clarification when I saw your comment pop up in my notifs. @GuyCohen can answer - I recommend dropping some links here to support your Yes proposal so he can review and see if it qualifies.

@shankypanky Again I’m not too peeved, I think this may have been more of an issue with the AI comment summary system. I personally wouldn’t classify them as being on the same level, but looking at the comment that prompted the AI summary it seems it may have hallucinated a little there.

@Valerie The obsession with cramming AI slop into this website is so destructive. Does anyone like it, aside from the SV guys running this place into the ground?

@Valerie Separately—I agree, it's ridiculous to resolve this "NO." The protests are still growing & spreading; high schools around the country are starting to walk out en masse. Deciding it's over feels like a MAGA fantasy

@ChurlishGambit 100%, that stupid auto-update stuff is so unreliable at best and downright misleading at worst. This isn’t even the first instance I can think of.

@ChurlishGambit I would cheerfully turn it off and not even notice

@shankypanky No. It does not seem that the protests were either large or violent enough to qualify as George Floyd-level.

@GuyCohen The protests are not over. They are ongoing, they are growing. Closing it is a MAGA fantasy

@ChurlishGambit perhaps read the market title

@GuyCohen Once again, the description states that it is if they become violent, regardless of size. You really needed to pay attention to getting rid of/modifying the AI comment summaries that got put in the description of the market.

@Valerie The AI clarifications are really unreliable and should never be consideted binding. They are mainly useful for the links they provide to the actual comments the creator made

@AhronMaline Missing my point, there is a button to stop an AI summary from happening, or at the very least they could go in and remove it if it was already posted and contains incorrect information.

@Valerie "Why don't users simply fix the website's bad feature?" Not on the users to fix this failing website. Won't matter soon enough, though

@ChurlishGambit Once again you didn't read what my comment said.

Admin note related to the ICE options' "Yes" resolution:

I've been looking for ways to appropriately settle the disagreement on the ICE options. As noted below in the comments (and not to rehash this debate), the options resolved Yes though credible reporting lists the agent(s) who shot Alex Pretti were from USBP. In casual discourse, people often don't differentiate between the two entities though they are two different organisations under the Immigration Enforcement umbrella. The creator intended for this to be an all-encompassing term, while some traders read ICE at its most literal, referring to the agency/employer specifically.

Manifold does not have an option to automatically nullify and pay out both sides on an option or market.

>> Taking into account that this is a short-term market, the options have been resolved/paid out for some time, and the creator's intention, I will leave the options resolved Yes but I will pay out (maximum 1k mana) No holders manually. <<

I'm pinning this comment to highlight that there are times when, despite best intentions, some grey areas or differences of interpretation aren't clear until it comes time to resolve. These things happen! And they've happened for many of us when creating markets! This is a good opportunity for a reminder to glance at your markets (including any you're considering making or those you're in/considering taking a position) and if there may be alternative interpretations, especially on practical things, take a moment to clarify.

Thanks for the respectful debate, everyone. I'll work on sending Managrams today to the No holders.

@traders I've now paid out all relevant folks (No holders on both options) via Managram

@shankypanky thank you very much for taking care of this

@GuyCohen does this include any Minnesota authority? What if he's charged with drunk driving unrelated to the protests in Minneapolis? Would it resolve YES?

@GuyCohen does this not resolve YES if reserve military is deployed?

@GuyCohen can you tell us every single agency that a member being killed could result in a YES resolution on this?

What constitutes killed? What if they are injured and later die of injuries a significant amount of time later?

@EvanDaniel I can't take anything at face value on this market.

@BlackCrusade Then I would suggest not trading in it.

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