What will happen as a result of the ICE shooting in Minneapolis in the next 30 days?
298
2kṀ26k
Feb 6
65%
The ICE agent is put on leave
33%
The ICE agent is charged by Minnesota authorities
26%
ICE kills another civilian
21%
Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota
12%
George Floyd-level protests
12%
The ICE agent is fired
8%
Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis
8%
An ICE agent is killed

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any ICE killing of a civilian within the 30-day period will count as a result of the Minneapolis shooting, regardless of whether there is a direct causal connection to the original incident.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that current protests are fairly small compared to the Floyd ones and are more comparable to typical anti-ICE protests seen in 2025. This suggests a high bar for what would constitute "George Floyd-level protests" for resolution purposes.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): George Floyd-level protests will count for resolution purposes if they become violent, regardless of their size.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

ICE already shot civilians in Portland a day after the Minneapolis shooting.

Must the events in this market take place in Minneapolis count for YES, or should other areas count? I think that anywhere should count. ICE agent behavior is changing throughout the country in response to the MN shooting, so there’s at least a weak causal link.

@KJW_01294 Portland shootings were not ICE.

ICE supposedly shot two more people in MN. Early indications are they’ll survive

(Sorry didn’t mean to @ you)

Trump issues a pardon.

Also, "George Floyd-level protests" could count if they get violent.

@GuyCohen like if the cops start rioting again?

@LarsOsborne The cops weren't the rioters.

bought Ṁ10 YES

“ICE kills another civilian”—how will you determine whether this is a result of this shooting?

@morallawwithin Any ICE killing of a civilian will count.

bought Ṁ60 NO

@GuyCohen Easier to resolve (so probably better) though that doesn’t really line up with the wording

bought Ṁ1,740 NO

@JimHays Christ, How high is the base rate of ICE agents killing civilians in Minneapolis for this to be an issue?

(edit- apparently “in Minneapolis” in the description qualifies the first killing, not subsequent)

@HastingsGreer NYT claims shots fired 9 times since September.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/us/ice-shootings-minneapolis-other-cities.html

This source gives about one killing every other month:

“Federal officers have fatally shot at least three other people in the last five months,”

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2026/01/07/ice-minneapolis-shooting-renee-good

sold Ṁ29 NO

A better question might have been “ICE kills another protester”

bought Ṁ10 YES

Those ICE agents are being funded while programs like Obamacare are cut, traveling into states where they are not welcomed, and ending up involved in lethal incidents against American civilians on urban streets.

In most countries this is how civil wars are ignited

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Areal The protests seem fairly small right now compared to the Floyd ones. More comparable to typical anti-ICE protests we've seen in 2025.

@GuyCohen wait while people are organizing.

Trump wants to spark a civil war

@GuyCohen The protesters have been pretty peaceful so far and we haven't seen signs this is going to devolve into mass rioting yet.

Please add "Emergency declared by Trump"

bought Ṁ2 YES

From NYT just now

bought Ṁ50 YES

@JimD the question is......is it ICE

@JeromeHPowell indeed, hence, I took some profits!

@JimD It doesn't look like either of them died.

"ICE kills another civilian"

In Minneapolis, or just in general? Are undocumented immigrants civilians?

@AleaNiled Ah yes because once American authorities cancel someone’s legal status, they immediately cease to be human and must, of course, be arrested and shipped off to Guantánamo. That’s obviously how law works.

@AleaNiled Any person who is not a member of a military, paramilitary, or uniformed service such as a police force or firefighting agency is a civilian.

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