How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?
4
Ṁ1kṀ5432027
77%
>3 months
56%
>6 months
45%
>1 year
35%
>2 years
20%
>5 years
On June 21, 2025, the United States completed air strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
While the US claims the sites were completely destroyed, Iran claims impact was minimal. This question asks: how many more months away from a nuclear weapon is the Islamic Republic?
This question will resolve using estimates produced by international governing bodies, such as the IAEA. These estimates may not be available soon, and the question will extend until a firm estimate is produced by an international agency.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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A leaked DIA assessment estimates the program was only set back "months": https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites
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