Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States conducts military strikes against Iran by December 31, 2027. Military strikes include any direct offensive military action by US forces targeting Iranian territory, military installations, nuclear facilities, or other strategic assets. The resolution will be based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major international outlets, or public acknowledgment by US military officials. Accidental incidents, defensive actions, or strikes conducted solely by allied nations (Israel, etc.) without direct US participation do not qualify.

Background

As of late January 2026, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and accompanying warships have arrived in the Middle East, with President Trump stating that time is running out before he hits Iran "with great power, enthusiasm and purpose." Iran and the United States have confirmed opening lines of communication to work out a deal and avoid military action, with Trump telling reporters that Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington. However, an Iranian official stated Iran wants the United States to remove its military assets from the Middle East before engaging in talks, and progress toward negotiations appeared to have stumbled due to the US's unwillingness to reduce its military presence.

In June 2025, the US launched military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran responded by striking a US air base in Qatar; President Trump announced a ceasefire on June 23. Iran's regime is in its most vulnerable position in decades after widespread protests and a 12-day war with Israel that weakened its military capabilities. Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60%, significantly beyond the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA.

Considerations

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have ruled out the use of their airspace or territory to launch attacks on Iran, which could constrain US military options. Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have been engaging in diplomatic efforts to prevent military confrontation, with Turkey calling for US-Iran dialogue to avoid further destabilization. The outcome depends significantly on whether diplomatic negotiations succeed or whether escalation occurs from either side.

This description was generated by AI.