Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the United States conducts any military strike on Iranian territory by June 30, 2026. This includes air strikes, missile strikes, or drone attacks on military, nuclear, or government facilities. The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news outlets and official US government statements.

Background

Demonstrations began December 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country's economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. Iran's parliament speaker warned the U.S. military and Israel would be "legitimate targets" if America strikes the Islamic Republic, as threatened by President Donald Trump. In 2025, the US and Israel struck Iran's nuclear programme, the UN reimposed sanctions against the country and its economy continued to struggle. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that diplomacy is "always the first option", but that military attacks are "on the table".