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MANIFOLD
Who will be pregnant first?
16
Ṁ900Ṁ3k
resolved Mar 22
74%14%
Elena
26%10%
None by October 1
0.0%Other
38%
Swimmer
30%
Spiracular
0.1%
Michael Blume
7%
Alicorn
Elena, spiracular, and swimmer are all trying for babies! Which will get a positive pregnancy test first? Mar 2, 7:40pm: Related markets: Will Elena be pregnant before she turns 34? https://manifold.markets/Elena/will-i-be-pregnant-before-i-turn-34 Will Spiracular be pregnant before Elena? https://manifold.markets/spiracular/will-i-get-pregnant-before-elena Close date updated to 2022-10-01 12:00 am
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Should this resolve? https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/half-an-hour-before-dawn-in-san-francisco Scott mentions he expects a daughter.

@Lorenzo It should resolve but actually Spiracular is not so far as I know pregnant, and Elena is.

There is some ambiguity in resolution timing, as JiSK points out, and my 1-2% given uncorrelated failure rates still seems correct to me.
Close date is 2022/10/01, but when will this resolve? Generally the final resolve date should be later than the close date (since Manifold rewards behave badly if the decisive event happens while the market is still open). Possibilities I'd recommend: - 2022/12/31; if still no one, resolves to (Celer #4) of nobody - does not resolve until someone on the list is pregnant (sorry Celer)
Nice! I wonder if I'll find out about any new community people trying for kids this way.
*thinking face*
Setting up a multiple choice market starting with equal odds on all choices is surprisingly difficult.

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