Which member of our friend group will get married first?
21
1kṀ51212034
10%
@astyerche (laughs at his own jokes)
42%
@theatypicallylargeL (balloon boy)
7%
@AlexCao (terrorist)
5%
@cc6 (likes math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft)
22%
@hannah (mop 2023)
8%
@potatopenguin (social guy)
7%
@AaronCho (chojan horse)
Self explanatory
I have added a description for each person to give information on our chances.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Who will my friend D end up marrying?
Which member of the Grace is 4 Guys Too Group Chat will have their wedding first?
Who in the GC will get married next
Will my friend Evan get married by the end of 2027?
55% chance
Who will mary first?
Will I be part of a wedding party before the end of 2025?
21% chance
Who will die first?
Who will die first?
Who will be the next Friend (from Friends) to die?
When will my friend lose his virginity?
1/24/26