The underlying Metaculus market has resolved No. This market can now resolve.

Sad!

Germany set to close all nuclear plants on Saturday: https://news.sky.com/story/germany-to-shut-final-three-nuclear-power-plants-as-concern-over-green-energy-targets-grows-12854958

In December 2022, a board member from Energie Baden-Württemberg said "it’s too late for another runtime extension." Nothing seems to have changed since then. I don't see any possibility for Germany's nuclear plants to continue past the April 15th deadline. I'm surprised to see this market still so high.

The German parliament approved delaying the shutdown of nuclear plants until April 15, 2023[1]. The plants will run out of fuel around that time, so extending their life beyond April seems untenable.

1: https://www.dw.com/en/german-parliament-approves-nuclear-plants-life-extension/a-63721032

@mndrix I mostly agree... I'm just puzzled because that information has been available for a while, and Metaculus hasn't moved much.

"The legal basis will be created to allow the operation of the nuclear power plants Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland beyond December 31, 2022, until April 15, 2023," Scholz said in a statement. (Deutsche Welle)

@Chocobo I still think there is a chance that the energy situation will deteriorate sufficiently for the government to consider another extension.

Even Greta is saying leave the plants open…

Germany will keep two of its remaining three nuclear power plants running until at least April, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/stresstest-akw-habeck-101.html

Two of the three remaining German nuclear power plants are to be in reserve to supply electricity until next spring.

"New fuel assemblies will not be loaded and mid-April 2023 is also the end for the reserve"