Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?
resolved Jun 4
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10004/german-nuclear-power/ Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm
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mndrix avatar
Michael Hendrickspredicted NO

The underlying Metaculus market has resolved No. This market can now resolve.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch


mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricksbought Ṁ400 of NO

In December 2022, a board member from Energie Baden-Württemberg said "it’s too late for another runtime extension." Nothing seems to have changed since then. I don't see any possibility for Germany's nuclear plants to continue past the April 15th deadline. I'm surprised to see this market still so high.

mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricksbought Ṁ100 of NO

The German parliament approved delaying the shutdown of nuclear plants until April 15, 2023[1]. The plants will run out of fuel around that time, so extending their life beyond April seems untenable.

1: https://www.dw.com/en/german-parliament-approves-nuclear-plants-life-extension/a-63721032

Sjlver avatar
Sjlversold Ṁ88 of NO

@mndrix I mostly agree... I'm just puzzled because that information has been available for a while, and Metaculus hasn't moved much.

Daconomist avatar
Daconompredicted YES

@Chocobo I still think there is a chance that the energy situation will deteriorate sufficiently for the government to consider another extension.

HarrisonLucas avatar
Harrison Lucasbought Ṁ10 of YES

Even Greta is saying leave the plants open…

Chocobo avatar
Chocobobought Ṁ150 of NO


Two of the three remaining German nuclear power plants are to be in reserve to supply electricity until next spring.

"New fuel assemblies will not be loaded and mid-April 2023 is also the end for the reserve"

ZhaoNan avatar
Zhao Nanbought Ṁ10 of NO
Also see this market: https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-all-nuclear-power-plants-in-ge