ZhaoNan avatar
closes 
Dec 31
Will all nuclear power plants in Germany be shut down in 2022?
4%
chance

Play-money trading

Mana (M$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your trades. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!
RyanMoulton avatar
Ryan Moulton bought M$20 of NO3 days ago
0
mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks is predicting YES at 6% 4 days ago
0
MP avatar
MP is predicting NO at 6% 4 days ago
0
Nier avatar
Nier sold M$118 of YES25 days ago
0
mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks bought M$20 of YESa month ago
0
BTE avatar
BTE bought M$250 of NOa month ago
0
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall bought M$1 of YESa month ago
0
BTE avatar
BTE is predicting NO at 32% a month ago
0
mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks bought M$30 of YESa month ago
0
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey bought M$10 of NOa month ago
0
mndrix avatar
Metaculus market[1] implies 48% Yes. Leaders of German power companies think that it's not feasible to keep the plants open[2]. German shutdown of nuclear has 20 years of inertia behind it. I doubt they could stop it in 10 months even if they wanted to. It's also not clear that nuclear can substitute for natural gas in the way Germany would need. Gas provides energy for peaking plants[3] and nuclear provides base load capacity. Keeping the nuclear plants open probably wouldn't help anything, except perhaps some political careers. 1: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10004/german-nuclear-power/ 2: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/4u3kJkDIz9CSmqYUUviA 3: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant#:~:text=Peaker%20plants%20are%20generally%20gas%20turbines%20or%20gas,limited%20to%20areas%20not%20supplied%20with%20natural%20gas.
0
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall is predicting NO at 14% a month ago
0
mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks is predicting YES at 14% a month ago
0
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall is predicting NO at 14% a month ago
0