Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the status of the Iran-Israel conflict as of September 1, 2025, according to reputable news sources. The possible outcomes are:
Formal ceasefire (respected by both sides): A publicly announced ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel (and potentially other parties), with no significant violations reported and adhered to as of September 1, 2025. Minor military activity may be tolerated if the other side does not consider it a complete breach of the ceasefire. On the other hand, an earlier ceasefire which is broken by September will not count. The question is about the status on the 1st of September
Minimal military activity despite no ceasefire: No formal ceasefire agreement, but only isolated or sporadic military incidents between Iran and Israel, with no major escalations or sustained engagements by market end. A week with no missile strikes from either side and no other activity reported leading up to market end would fulfill this condition.
Active conflict: Ongoing, significant military operations between Iran and Israel, including airstrikes, missile attacks, or ground engagements, as reported by September 1st. Activity by or directed at recognized proxies of Iran will count as conflict.
Resolution will be determined based on reports from credible news organizations such as Reuters, BBC, and The New York Times.
Related Market
Given the potential for a judgement call, I will NOT bet on this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ524 | |
| 2 | Ṁ270 | |
| 3 | Ṁ200 | |
| 4 | Ṁ125 | |
| 5 | Ṁ69 |
People are also trading
I resolved to Ceasefire. I see @FecalAbhuman's comments, but there was a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US/Qatar and agreed to by the parties. Whether it is formal or not, the spirit of the market (as evidenced by the probabilities) was that this counted.
@LuisPedroCoelho On considering this more, I think the decision was correct and 100% correct. The "no ceasefire" option precedes a negotiated ceasefire and meant to cover a different type of petering out of the conflict.
This seems to have been understood by traders as well (with doubts raised only at the last minute)
“As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around,” Araghchi said in a post on X.
“As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations.”
Araghchi added that if Israel stops its “illegal aggression” against Iran “no later than 4 a.m. Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
