Status of Iran/Israel conflict on 1 September 2025

1kṀ155

Aug 31

ALL

28%

Formal ceasefire (respected by both sides)

38%

Minimal military activity despite no ceasefire

34%

Active conflict

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the status of the Iran-Israel conflict as of August 1, 2025, according to reputable news sources. The possible outcomes are:

Formal ceasefire (respected by both sides): A publicly announced ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel (and potentially other parties), with no significant violations reported and adhered to as of September 1, 2025. Minor military activity may be tolerated if the other side does not consider it a complete breach of the ceasefire. On the other hand, an earlier ceasefire which is broken by September will not count. The question is about the status on the 1st of September
Minimal military activity despite no ceasefire: No formal ceasefire agreement, but only isolated or sporadic military incidents between Iran and Israel, with no major escalations or sustained engagements by market end. A week with no missile strikes from either side and no other activity reported leading up to market end would fulfill this condition.
Active conflict: Ongoing, significant military operations between Iran and Israel, including airstrikes, missile attacks, or ground engagements, as reported by September 1st. Activity by or directed at recognized proxies of Iran will count as conflict.

Resolution will be determined based on reports from credible news organizations such as Reuters, BBC, and The New York Times.