The Warm Home Discount takes £150 off the energy bills of about 6 million low-income households in Great Britain each winter. The Guardian reported on 6 October 2026 that the most likely Budget energy measure is a bigger Warm Home Discount, with a further £100 paid for by taxpayers under consideration. YES if the Budget announces that some or all households eligible for the Warm Home Discount, in any part of Great Britain, will get more than £150 in total for the 2026-27 or 2027-28 scheme year, either by raising the discount or through an extra payment described as a top-up to it or paid because a household qualifies for it. A scheme that replaces the Warm Home Discount for either year counts only if its eligibility is defined by the Warm Home Discount criteria and it gives those households more than £150. Help whose eligibility is defined some other way resolves NO, even if the groups largely overlap and even if it replaces the discount: for example a payment to all households, or a DWP cost-of-living payment to people on means-tested benefits.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.