Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?
26
237
แน€530
2029
27%
chance

Resolves yes if Inflection is commonly perceived as being in the same tier as OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic for any six month period

Inherently subjective, but factors to be considered are: funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media, and its CEO's presence alongside other major lab CEOs at major meetings with e.g. world leaders, plus anything else that seems pertinent.

Resolves no if the criteria are never met, or if they're met, but Inflection goes bust or gets absorbed by a pre-existing top lab before six months have elapsed. If inflection gets bought by a then-not-major lab/player (e.g. Apple), the market resolves yes if the criteria have otherwise been met and six months elapse. I will give notice and hear debate as to when the six-month clock should start running and require some affirmative negative update to stop.

I won't trade in this market.

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bought แน€100 NO from 40% to 33%

Also is the close date actually Dec 31 of this year or are you planning on extending it?

@vluzko Thanks fixed

Are you in any way affiliated with Inflection AI?

@vluzko No affiliations with any labs