Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. Markets close will be extended as needed.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
1,000
3.00Trump's response to the very sincere, respectful and direct questions asked of him in the Univision town hall this week suggests that Trump is still very worried about the possibility of serving jail time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXJWjj0ML7Y&t=3s&ab_channel=PBSNewsHour
In this clip he says:
he was invited to speak at the Jan 6th rally (questionable but what's another patsy)
he didn't ask anyone to go to Washington that day (he promoted it heavily on social media)
nobody died other than Ashley Babbitt who was shot by secret service (a nuanced awnser that attempts to exclude the police officer that survived for one day in critical condition, two other officers that committed suicide and his supporters that died of heart attacks and other causes)
His response to the linked question was so completely and specifically defensive that he abandoned any attempt to convince the voter support him.
1.8% on 2024 seems a little low in light of the NYT article today.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/nyregion/donald-trump-merchan-sentencing-jail.html
if indeed Trump has a reasonable change of losing the elections. My math goes:
for S= serving time in 2024, and L/W=losing/winning elections
P(S)=P(S|L)P(L)+P(S|W)P(W)=0.3 *0.5+0*0.5=0.15=15%
at least.
@EricNeyman The Georgia prosecutors are to be lauded for their ambition, but the case has always been highly speculative and I give it an 80% chance of losing, and the other 20% to be overturned by SCOTUS.
@CraigDemel It wasn't speculative until the SCOTUS ruling actually, the case was widely believed to be the second strongest case against him until that decision (the first being the documents case). Ironically, the case everyone was most skeptical of was the NY case, which was the first he was convicted of. I mean, to be fair he was guilty as sin in that case, but the technicalities of the timeline and navigating the central "conspiracy" claim was going to make it difficult, but nevertheless: guilty. The Georgia case was pretty close to a slam dunk until the SCOTUS ruling.
@ChrisMcGuire To me Trump's actions looked like hopium, and the prosecution's charges were therefore hopium about hopium. I don't think you can get from there to jail. But by all means buy a bunch of NO for Never if you disagree!
if he doesnโt win: this, 2026, and NO on never would go crazy.
@JS_81 people are foolish if they don't see it. Even if Trump only get probation, he gets put in house arrest or literally arrest if he fails to follow the terms of his probation.
This market has slightly imprecise wording: Arguably it would resolve "Never" if he dies or is released before fully serving the custodial sentence. You might want to change the language "if he dies without serving a custodial sentence" to "if he dies without beginning to serve a custodial sentence" for clarity.
@ForTruth your interpretation is correct, it is about when/if he starts to serve, not whether he survives the sentence.