
When will Trump serve time?
2.5k
21kṀ1.8m2029
91%
Never
0%
2023 (NO)
0.1%
2024
0.6%
2025
0.2%
2026
0.3%
2027
0.5%
2028
4%
2029
4%
2030s
0%
2040s or later
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. Markets close will be extended as needed.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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