A derivative market of /MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
Note that this is not just about when Trump begins serving time, but also about in which years he will still be serving time before his release/death.
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
Any year in which trump is serving a custodial sentence will resolve Yes. Any years in which Trump has not served a sentence will resolve No at the end of the year. If Trump dies, all remaining years will resolve No.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
As each year resolves, I will add a new year as an option.
Related questions
@Joshua I think he will be dead. He already has reached the average US life expectancy, is obese and has an unhealthy life style. If he serves a sentence, it won't help either. I didn't put my bets in accordingly to his expected death because I'm too lazy.
@AlexWilson You can buy yes shares and they automatically zero themselves out. I've already done it at this bet and it works like a charm, it's just a little bit more complicated and you might be stuck with a few shares when they don't equal themselves out until the sell feature works.