A derivative market of /MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

Note that this is not just about when Trump begins serving time, but also about in which years he will still be serving time before his release/death.

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any year in which trump is serving a custodial sentence will resolve Yes. Any years in which Trump has not served a sentence will resolve No at the end of the year. If Trump dies, all remaining years will resolve No.

What counts?

• Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

• Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

• Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

• It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

As each year resolves, I will add a new year as an option.