In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
➕
Plus
24
Ṁ4816
2029
26%
2029
23%
2030
7%
2028
7%
2027
6%
2026
5%
2025
2%
2024

A derivative market of /MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

Note that this is not just about when Trump begins serving time, but also about in which years he will still be serving time before his release/death.

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any year in which trump is serving a custodial sentence will resolve Yes. Any years in which Trump has not served a sentence will resolve No at the end of the year. If Trump dies, all remaining years will resolve No.

What counts?

  • Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

  • Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

  • Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

  • It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

As each year resolves, I will add a new year as an option.

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I'm interested in the drop off at 2029/2030, do people think he might get sentenced to just 3-4 years and then be released? I had assumed it would either be exoneration or life in custody, but I guess I don't have much to back that assumption up!

@Joshua I think he will be dead. He already has reached the average US life expectancy, is obese and has an unhealthy life style. If he serves a sentence, it won't help either. I didn't put my bets in accordingly to his expected death because I'm too lazy.

Careful about trading in this market — selling your shares is not yet supported

Yeah there was a bug last night when it was introduced, they'll have it fixed soon. In the meantime, if you have yes shares and want to sell you can buy no shares and it will sell your yes shares as needed to reduce the probability to where you're trying to buy it to.

@AlexWilson You can buy yes shares and they automatically zero themselves out. I've already done it at this bet and it works like a charm, it's just a little bit more complicated and you might be stuck with a few shares when they don't equal themselves out until the sell feature works.

Those of you buying 2025 should be buying 2026 higher unless you think he'll get out of prison or die before 2026.

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