Closed to new entries. New entries submitted after 2024-01-01 resolve NO. Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect. Using Manifold means making a bet or trade. The market resolves in the following cases: There is only one person left. Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool. I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else. Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people. I will not bet in this market. Update 2026-08-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve NO, the comment pointing out a 30-day inactivity gap must be posted before the participant resumes activity on Manifold. If a participant resumes activity before a comment is made, they squeak by and cannot be eliminated retroactively for that gap.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, @Joshua, followed by @Gabrielle and @dreev are most likely. See the market for live updates (40 traders, as of Aug 22, 2026).

Tontine

MANIFOLD

Tontine

Ṁ2.8kṀ29k

2030

32%

25%

12%

@jgyou aka JGY

1.4%

@jcb

Other

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@bohaska

Closed to new entries. New entries submitted after 2024-01-01 resolve NO.

Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect. Using Manifold means making a bet or trade.

The market resolves in the following cases:

There is only one person left.
Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool.
I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else.

Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people.

I will not bet in this market.

Update 2026-08-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve NO, the comment pointing out a 30-day inactivity gap must be posted before the participant resumes activity on Manifold.
- If a participant resumes activity before a comment is made, they squeak by and cannot be eliminated retroactively for that gap.

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

When will Tontine pay out?

Will Tontine ever pay out?

88% chance

How many players will lose Tontine within the calendar year 2026?

During which year will the Tontine surviving player count reach 100?

Will the Tontine surviving player count be 100 or less as of 2027-01-01?

60% chance

In Tontine, which will be the first color to go extinct?

Sort by:

I believe @roma, @jskf, @Ernie, and @DylanSlagh are out?

is there a way to see if truly didn't interact for 30/days? It's possible but I've been coming in to resolve markets & respond to comments. I bet one of these ai thimgamajigs can probably work out a way to figure this out

@Ernie Rules say "Using Manifold means making a bet or trade", so if you've only been resolving and commenting then I think you're out

bought Ṁ10 NO

roma had a gap in usage, though they seem back 🤷

@jgyou 😅 My reading of the rules is that it's by design that you squeak by if you have a gap that no one calls out here in the comments in time.

@dreev confirmed: need a kill shot comment 💀

I’ve placed a large order limit on myself, in case anyone wants to take a larger position

filled a Ṁ5,000 NO at 25% order

@Gabrielle I will never log off

tiswtr, SeraphinaNix, AnthonyPeterson, and SnoozingNewt are out (updated)

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 25% order

ArkPoint, Charlie, and Case are out (updated)

Could someone (creator or mod) update options with "(NO)" who are out? From comments below, I believe that includes:

Nikos
AlexBGoode
JoshuaB
vansh

@jcb I welcome mods doing this as they come across it.

I believe @CamillePerrin is out (ie, active but no trades/bets in the last month)

@dreev 😭😭😭 (indeed correct)

@CamillePerrin Very glad you didn't disappear for real! I kind of feel weird calling people out here, though I realize that's the whole point of this tontine.