Tontine
35
2.8ká¹€20k
2030
1.7%
@jgyou aka JGY
1.7%
1.4%
1.4%
1.2%
Other
1.1%

Closed to new entries. New entries submitted after 2024-01-01 resolve NO.

Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect. Using Manifold means making a bet or trade.

The market resolves in the following cases:

  • There is only one person left.

  • Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool.

  • I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else.

Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people.

I will not bet in this market.

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bought á¹€10 YES

Sound-off, who's still alive?

I’m still alive!

I'm not online enough to have such a streak but I'm alive

@Joshua I am dead

bought á¹€350 NO

I believe @Nikos is out 😭

sold á¹€4 YES

Looks like JoshuaB is out too

SeraphinaNix does not exist any more, did they just change usernames, or are they gone?

boughtá¹€446 NO

must have been a misclick. adjusted a few oops. now I must root for your demise

@MartinRandall @firstuserhere and @brubsby resolve ‘NO’

Thanks. I can't resolve till the end though, due to Manifold limits on linked markets.

I can't find brubsby in the list...

bought á¹€5 NO

bought á¹€300 NO

brubs has a large limit at 1% there, if anyone is willing to eat it up for an unknown amount of time (:sob: I miss loans)

scratch that, might not be buyable. the UI at least tries to refund you before buying it

Maybe make a no limit order at 1% and see if it cancels out? Sounds like a bug though.

bought á¹€500 NO

This will resolve NO

Romaboughtá¹€260 YES

Looks like there are some users whose profile pages 404. I'm not sure if they just changed their usernames or if some of them are out:

  • JGY is @jgyou [now fixed]

  • tiswtr

  • AlexBGoode is probably @AlexbGoode? [now fixed]

  • snoozingnewt

  • SeraphinaNix

  • dylanslagh (duplicated in the list, actual username @DylanSlagh)

@dreev Yeah, I made a mistake when entering my handle

@AlexbGoode fixed it

Is there a definitive way to confirm date-last-active from a user's profile page? I believe that, for example, @brubsby has been inactive for more than 30 days based on their most recent question/comment/trade, but I'm not sure if there's anything I might be missing.

@dreev Not being in a league is a sure sign.

vansh is already out (not active in the past month)

@jgyou Hmm, I failed to verify if that was true at the time myself and they do seem active currently, so I'm not sure how @MartinRandall will handle this one.

@dreev easily done from the API. Just have to look for an inactivity gap after official start date (January 1st 2024?)

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