Closed to new entries. New entries submitted after 2024-01-01 resolve NO.
Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect.
The market resolves in the following cases:
There is only one person left.
Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool.
I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else.
Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people.
I will not bet in this market.
Related questions
Looks like there are some users whose profile pages 404. I'm not sure if they just changed their usernames or if some of them are out:
JGY is @jgyou [now fixed]
tiswtr
AlexBGoode is probably @AlexbGoode? [now fixed]
snoozingnewt
SeraphinaNix
dylanslagh (duplicated in the list, actual username @DylanSlagh)
Is there a definitive way to confirm date-last-active from a user's profile page? I believe that, for example, @brubsby has been inactive for more than 30 days based on their most recent question/comment/trade, but I'm not sure if there's anything I might be missing.
@jgyou Hmm, I failed to verify if that was true at the time myself and they do seem active currently, so I'm not sure how @MartinRandall will handle this one.
@dreev easily done from the API. Just have to look for an inactivity gap after official start date (January 1st 2024?)
Base rate is 1/202. Draw your own conclusions from the fact that I'm still alive in real Tontine, too.
@MartinRandall If that's the case, should we resolve them NO or N/A? Seems confusing to keep them up.
