An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?
Plus
29
Ṁ8772029
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if an artificial intelligence gets a trustworthy-ish badge on Manifold Markets.
Resolves NO at the beginning of 2030, otherwise.
Cyborgs do not count. The AI must interact with Manifold without human assistance. It may trade with humans for employment, goods and services.
Manifold, or Manifold badges, have changed and will continue to change between now and 2030. The market resolves based on the closest equivalents. "Trustworthy-ish", "It's really me!", "Partner" and "Moderator" badges all count as sufficient as of Feb 2024.
Please do not cause human extinction to manipulate this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
64% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
53% chance
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
15% chance
At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
67% chance
At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
69% chance
At the beginning of 2028, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
67% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
38% chance
Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?
73% chance