Will any major US city have a blackout of at least a day before 2025?
Will any major US city have a blackout of at least a day before 2025?
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1kṀ2255resolved Jan 1
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To clarify, by major I mean with a minimum population of 1M people, with the electricity blackout having affect at least 30% of its inhabitants for at least a full 24 hours, for this market to resolve YES
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It's a stupid question because everyone dies in a few minutes off cold weather, the duration of blackout is irrelevant.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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