Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025?
Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025?
17
100Ṁ86962026
62%
chance
6
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will attempt to check https://poweroutage.us/ at least once per day (or much more often) and this will resolve to Yes if the total of all states and territories (as given under the "Regions" tab) has 2,500,000+ customers without power. I will be the sole person checking for resolution so it is possible that a transient event will be missed. I will not resolve based on others noting in the comments that it has occurred but if I notice the comment I will check and resolve if the condition still exists. I will also see if following on FB or twitter helps and may enlist others in my circle to make it more likely I notice.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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