This market will resolve purely based on my opinion. If I hear a story and think it's some crazy shit, this resolves YES. I will not bet in this market.
Also, please remember Rule 0: please don't commit any crimes to get a Yes resolution.
For reference:
Two weeks ago (the week of 9/7) would obviously have resolved yes, because of Charlie Kirk getting assassinated.
The week before that (week of 8/31) would have resolved yes, because of the frankly bonkers extrajudicial bombing of a retreating boat.
The week before that (week of 8/24) would have resolved no, despite the Ascension church shooting.
The week before that (week of 8/17) would have resolved yes, because of that whole crazy debacle with one of Eric Adams' staffers trying to bribe a reporter with cash in a chip bag.
I might resolve based on stories posted in the comments, but local/regional news is far less likely to get a YES resolution. Something like a "Florida Man" story isn't likely to resolve yes. Stories that have happened before at roughly the same scale, like the extrajudicial boat bombing, are also unlikely to resolve yes, though there are potential exceptions (like, say, another assassination). Similarly, things that are expected or have already been announced are less likely to resolve yes, outside of egregious cases.
If I am for whatever reason unable to resolve, this resolves based on a 48-hour Manifold poll.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ1,150 | |
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| 3 | Ṁ222 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ165 |
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This market has resolved YES because of a combination of the Comey indictment, and this, which I personally think is insane (Though to be honest, the "Tylenol and vaccines cause autism" event earlier this week probably should have resolved this).
@traders I'm not doing one of these this week. I forgot to make one before Tuesday, for one (oops), but I also I think the looming shutdown is going to suck all of the oxygen out of the media reporting on any other crazy shit, and I don't feel like deciding when a fully-expected shutdown turns into crazy shit. Expect this to make a return next week!
@Marnix let me get this right: you're saying there's only one possible crazy shit that could happen next week?
This market has resolved YES because of a combination of the Comey indictment, and this, which I personally think is insane (Though to be honest, the "Tylenol and vaccines cause autism" event earlier this week probably should have resolved this).
Comey indictment should resolve this as yes https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/25/politics/james-comey-justice-department-trump-bondi-perjury-virginia An "extraordinary escalation" in the words of CNN.
@ShawnReynolds this looks pretty crazy. I haven't been able to find the actual indictment document. Has anyone got a link to it?
@jcb I don't have the document, but this press release tells you how to find it https://www.justice.gov/usao-edva/pr/federal-grand-jury-indicts-former-fbi-director-false-statements-and-obstruction
@ShawnReynolds thanks!
Docket on CourtListener is here: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/71459121/united-states-v-comey/
The indictment was returned as "a true bill", but the second document indicates that the grand jury did not concur on an indictment on one of the counts (not completely clear to me which one).
@ShawnReynolds this does feel pretty crazy tbh. I'll have to look at it a bit more but there's a good chance this does it
@ShawnReynolds A politician lying is not crazy shit at all. It is normal. To be expected. It should be no surprise that Trump wants to indict him for Russiagate.
@SteveBright He's been indicted for telling Congress he didn't authorize Andrew McCabe to be an anonymous source for the media for the Hillary email story. Andrew McCabe disputes this -he says he was authorized after the fact (??) - but a DOJ report from 2018 (Trump's previous term!) determined McCabe was lying. The fact they went through with this case which is almost definitely going to fail is some crazy shit.
@jessald the meeting is, sadly, next week. The summoning itself is weird (security risk etc), but is it crazy?