Will some crazy shit happen in the US this week (9/22)?
44
1kṀ3247
Sep 27
83%
chance

This market will resolve purely based on my opinion. If I hear a story and think it's some crazy shit, this resolves YES. I will not bet in this market.

Also, please remember Rule 0: please don't commit any crimes to get a Yes resolution.

For reference:

  • Two weeks ago (the week of 9/7) would obviously have resolved yes, because of Charlie Kirk getting assassinated.

  • The week before that (week of 8/31) would have resolved yes, because of the frankly bonkers extrajudicial bombing of a retreating boat.

  • The week before that (week of 8/24) would have resolved no, despite the Ascension church shooting.

  • The week before that (week of 8/17) would have resolved yes, because of that whole crazy debacle with one of Eric Adams' staffers trying to bribe a reporter with cash in a chip bag.

I might resolve based on stories posted in the comments, but local/regional news is far less likely to get a YES resolution. Something like a "Florida Man" story isn't likely to resolve yes. Stories that have happened before at roughly the same scale, like the extrajudicial boat bombing, are also unlikely to resolve yes, though there are potential exceptions (like, say, another assassination).

If I am for whatever reason unable to resolve, this resolves based on a 48-hour Manifold poll.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

lmao you know trump's announcing a cure for autism in 30m right

@Luxeed i swear to god, if i have to make the "how much crazy shit will happen this week" market this early in the week

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Marnix it's a good week sir

@Luxeed

looking for a new week

ask the market creator if the week is crazy or shit

they don't understand

i pull out illustrated diagram explaining what is crazy and what is shit

they laugh and say "it's a good week, sir"

buy shares of "yes"

it's shit

@Marnix Gotta push the Epstein Files out of the news cycle somehow.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The rfk autism announcement could quickly escalate into crazy shit imo

bought Ṁ100 NO

NOTHING EVER HAPPENS (please)

bought Ṁ25 NO

It has to be a weekday?

@ItsMe I meant to make this market on sunday, but forgot (oops). Saturday counts, though.

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