My criteria for crazy shit, is higher, since all the crazy shit already happened and now feels normalized in the News.
Like this market:
https://manifold.markets/Marnix/will-some-crazy-shit-happen-in-the

This market will resolve purely based on my opinion. If I hear a story and think it's some crazy shit, this resolves YES. I will not bet in this market.

Also, please remember Rule 0: please don't commit any crimes to get a Yes resolution.

For reference:

• Last week resolved YES, due to the FCC's Jimmy Kimmel affair.

• Two weeks ago (the week of 9/7) would obviously have resolved yes, because of Charlie Kirk getting assassinated.

• The week before that (week of 8/31) would have resolved yes, because of the frankly bonkers extrajudicial bombing of a retreating boat.

• The week before that (week of 8/24) would have resolved no, despite the Ascension church shooting.

• The week before that (week of 8/17) would have resolved yes, because of that whole crazy debacle with one of Eric Adams' staffers trying to bribe a reporter with cash in a chip bag.

I might resolve based on stories posted in the comments, but local/regional news is far less likely to get a YES resolution. Something like a "Florida Man" story isn't likely to resolve yes. Stories that have happened before at roughly the same scale, like the extrajudicial boat bombing, are also unlikely to resolve yes, though there are potential exceptions (like, say, another assassination). Similarly, things that are expected or have already been announced are less likely to resolve yes, outside of egregious cases.

Thanks Marnix for the Ideas and words above!

• Update 2025-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The following events are considered expected and will not resolve this market to YES:

  • Asteroid events

  • Earthquakes

  • Airport drone disruptions

• Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use another market (https://manifold.markets/embed/ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-in-octo) to help determine resolution. However, this market requires 3 or more qualifying events (as indicated in the title ">= 3 Times"), whereas the referenced market may use different criteria.

• Update 2025-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): AI-generated videos are not considered crazy shit, even if posted by notable figures like Trump's account. The creator considers such videos "one in a million" but not surprising enough to count toward resolution.