This market will resolve purely based on my opinion. If I hear a story and think it's some crazy shit, this resolves YES. Only events that happen during the shutdown (starting midnight eastern time on 10/1 and ending when the Associated Press or Fox News reports that Trump has signed the spending bill, whichever is earlier). If the shutdown is especially brief (less than 18 hours), this market resolves N/A. I will not bet in this market.
For the purposes of this question, the shutdown itself is not crazy shit, the length of the shutdown is not crazy shit, the firings that the Trump admin has threatened are not crazy shit, and the shutdown ending is not crazy shit. Anything that's solely related to the shutdown is extremely unlikely to be crazy shit. The effects of the shutdown are unlikely to be crazy shit unless especially egregious.
For reference:
The week of 9/7 would obviously have resolved YES, because of Charlie Kirk getting assassinated.
The week before that (week of 8/31) would have resolved YES, because of the frankly bonkers extrajudicial bombing of a retreating boat.
The week before that (week of 8/24) would have resolved NO, despite the Ascension church shooting.
The week before that (week of 8/17) would have resolved YES, because of that whole crazy debacle with one of Eric Adams' staffers trying to bribe a reporter with cash in a chip bag.
I might resolve based on stories posted in the comments, but local/regional news, such as "Florida Man" style stories, are unlikely to get a YES resolution. Stories that have happened before, recently, at roughly the same scale (such as further extrajudicial boat bombings) are unlikely to resolve yes, though there are potential exceptions (like, say, another assassination, or an indictment of Joe Biden). Similarly, things that are expected or have already been announced are less likely to resolve yes.
If I am for whatever reason unable to resolve, this resolves based on a 48-hour Manifold poll. As always, please remember Rule 0: Don't commit a crime for a YES resolution.
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This market resolves YES because of the explosion at an explosives manufacturing plant in Tennessee that has left 18 dead, and completely destroyed the facility. https://apnews.com/article/tennessee-blast-military-explosive-plant-3c26b71217a2ebe7fb4ca4e21b4edcd7
I was a bit skeptical that this was really that crazy- I mean, an explosives factory is exactly the type of factory I would guess is most likely to explode.
That's how I found out about the 2023 Pennsylvania chocolate factory explosion which killed 7 and injured 10.
Only one survivor was pulled out of the rubble: Patricia Borges, 50, a Mexican immigrant who caught on fire, and then she started praying to God. In her words: "I asked God why he was giving me such a horrible death,” she said. "I asked him to save me, that I didn’t want to die in the fire.”
That is when she fell through the floor and into a vat of liquid chocolate, breaking her feet and trapping her in liquid chocolate and rising water for hours as firefighters battled the flames.
NOW THAT IS SOME CRAZY SHIT!!!!!
@TiredCliche I remember when this happened! I was on a drive, and Reading is sorta-kinda-not-really-close to me, so I heard about it all over the radio and I can confirm that that explosion was fucking insane
This market resolves YES because of the explosion at an explosives manufacturing plant in Tennessee that has left 18 dead, and completely destroyed the facility. https://apnews.com/article/tennessee-blast-military-explosive-plant-3c26b71217a2ebe7fb4ca4e21b4edcd7
@ProjectVictory On the low end, perhaps, and random, definitely, but "sudden factory-destroying disaster that leaves double-digits dead" is some crazy shit, and, to be more blunt, "Bomb factory explodes" feels like it's a bit.
To be honest, this is just the first event where I can say something has definitely happened instead of a slowly developing story reaching a head.
Like, come on. Look at this smoldering rubble:
It's almost cartoonish. Seeing that under "Bomb Factory Explodes; 19 dead" is simultaneously hilarious and horrifying. That shit's crazy.
@Marnix wow, you have pretty different standards than I do. Like, it's an explosives factory, what did you expect to happen when something goes wrong there?
Now, I agree that this is simultaneously hilarious and terrible. But it doesn't really signify to me that the world is going mad.
@jcb I mean fair, but I feel like you'd expect a bomb factory of all things to have something in place to prevent a truly catastrophic "building went to da fuckin moon" explosion from happening
And, to be fair, I never said anything about the world going mad!
It's been a fairly slow news cycle, with the possible Israel ceasefire and government shutdown kind of dominating the news. There's still a few avenues this could YES, though (especially since it seems this'll be a really drawn out shutdown). This would resolve this yes if it happens, for example.
Trump calling for Pritzker's arrest comes extremely close, imo, but words can only be so crazy. If any actions come of it, that could resolve YES.
And, of course, something completely out of left field happening would be a very obvious YES. A sudden horrifying natural disaster, an assassination, etc.; your standard kind of crazy shit.
@Marnix Trump calling for Pritzker's arrest isn't crazy shit. Trump actually having him arrested is.
Fire at a South Carolina circuit court judge's home is currently being investigated as possible arson:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/06/isouth-carolina-judge-home-fire
does provoking civil war count? (Trump to deploy 200 California national guard and 400 Texas national guard servicemembers to Oregon)
@Yakushi12345 looks like my concern that the government shutdown would dominate the news cycle is getting a run for its money
unfortunately the israel/palestine conflict is not in the US, and I'm honestly still not sure what the Illinois guard getting nationalized really means, since they've been sending a fuckton of forces over there for some time nos 🤷
Government websites openly blaming "the radical left" for shutdown is kinda crazy.
Not sure if it's crazy by Trump standards but nothing really is.
@Yakushi12345 If they end the filibuster outright, I'd probably say yes - but something more narrow (such as ending the filibuster exclusively for continuing resolutions or something like that) feels like it might cross back over the "boring" threshold back into a boring procedural thing, and I'd have to see the specifics of a situation like that.
Unfortunately this happened before the shutdown, but surely this would have qualified as crazy shit
Anything that's solely related to the shutdown is extremely unlikely to be crazy shit
Noted, but: I respectfully submit that notices on official government websites blaming the shutdown on the left (some with language like "Radical Left Democrats") is crazy shit. (home pages of 6 out of 15 top-level departments; I haven't trawled through a meaningful sample of subsidiary agencies)
Thus far, while Trump and other top leaders have made a lot of this sort of noise, my impression is that for the most part the actual operation of the government has remained mostly nonpolitical. This is an overt politicization of much of the administration in a way that I don't think we've seen before.
@jcb Although this is pretty damn egregious, I can't call it egregious enough for a YES resolution (It's way too close to just being about the shutdown).
Still though. Eugh. That can't be good.