Will Russia be accused of sabotaging Nord Stream 1 and/or Nord Stream 2 in 2022?
28
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resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO

Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 have been damaged on 2022-09-26. By 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 31, 2022, will there be a consistent piece of evidence or a NATO country government and/or U.S. or U.K. intelligence agencies clearly accusing the Russian Federation of being responsible for these damages?

Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-operator-says-three-offshore-gas-pipelines-damaged-one-day-2022-09-27/

News report that German government assumes intended action: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/druckabfall-in-beiden-leitungen-gemeldet-nord-stream-pipelines-moglicherweise-durch-anschlage-beschadigt-8687140.html

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predicted YES

Seems improperly resolved based on criteria and Jack's note below. Maybe @MarlonK can explain the reasoning?

predicted YES

@MartinRandall there were a couple of informal accusations within a few days, but not further accusations or evidence. The spaceknow dark ships story doesn't seem to have gone anywhere either.

predicted YES

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-formally-blames-sabotage-for-nord-stream-pipeline-damage-11664449396

NATO said that a series of leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Europe were the result of sabotage and that attacks on its members’ infrastructure would be met with a collective response from the military alliance.

The North Atlantic Council, which consists of representatives from all 30 NATO governments, didn’t name a culprit behind the Baltic Sea leaks, though officials in several member countries have already attributed the destruction to Russia, without providing evidence.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@jack This should resolve YES based on that alone.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

After glancing at the news just now I have a sick feeling that Putin truly is fighting for his life because there is some crazy shit happening right now. I think the “leaks” in the gas pipelines are probably precursor to cutting the undersea Internet cables. We might have a week or two of absolute craziness. The only way Putin can win is if he convinces us, Americans and the West generally, it’s not worth it to see this through. How is he going to scare the world or convince us he is truly insane?!? We are gonna find out sooner than later.

You notice he isn’t calling to the Chechen’s to help in Ukraine. To me that is the biggest sign of all he is alone and scared. When Kadyrov loses his patience he isn’t gonna just chill and watch the end of the world from the front row. I am really hoping he can end this in some way not obvious to the world outside because Putin is in scorched Earth mode and there is no coming back from that.

predicted YES

@BTE I understand your concerns and I have to say I'm not entirely comfortable looking into this either. The fermization could go as follows: P(attack on energy infrastructure by Russia) = P(NS1/2 attack was Russia) x P(Russia is motivated to escalate further in this way) x P(Russia also decides to do so despite the implied risks of a NATO confrontation) x P(NATO is unable to prevent the attack despite higher security measures after NS1/2).

I am not entirely sure that Russia is really motivated to attack NATO infrastructure, as there could be other reasons for sabotaging NS1 and 2, and the risk of NATO retaliating is quite high if they were to destroy working pipelines. I have created an appropriate market for the outcome of P(attack on energy infrastructure by anyone), which should be almost the same as P(attack on infrastructure by Russia - or anyone with ties to Russia in this regard). https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-there-be-a-successful-attack-o