Will there be a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, or telecommunications infrastructure by February 2023?
82
14k
resolved Jan 30
Resolved
YES

Ukraine and the European part of Russia excluded.

The answer to this question is "Yes" if there has been a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, power, or telecommunications infrastructure by any actor by January 31, 2023, 23:59. Successful is defined as consistent reports of the attacked system(s) being inoperable for at least 24 hours.

Sep 29, 8:55am:

Sep 29, 9:03am:

Sep 29, 9:05am:

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admin resolved

predicted YES

Marlon, given the number of people discussing now-past events that could trigger a resolution, you should either resolve it or explain why you aren't doing so.

predicted YES

@akrasiac They don't seem to have used manifold in months

predicted YES

@MarlonK Please resolve thanks.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting - in reply to your earlier comment https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-there-be-a-successful-attack-o#SzBr0iUQ8vEv9HaIb86q

The market refers to 'a successful attack', and 'any actor'. This would include criminal actors.
If you have issues with the wording of the market, take it up with @MarlonK.

That AG should be fired and tried for incitement to racial violence. Likely to be executed in based Singapore.

Almost every one of these attacks gets traced back to robberies—it’s not rocket science

Pushing America back to Africa-levels of development is not some “white supremacist” plot; as if that made any sense; it’s just basic criminality

Knock out power, steal things

As to this market—there are literally massive power outages every year way larger in scope and impact (it’s called “weather”); not clear why some small town with spoiled groceries is a market resolving event

predicted YES

@Gigacasting I'm running a market on what I'm going to name my cat.

@Gigacasting Almost all of the attacks have been at communities that were having drag shows. Not sure how that is not right-wing violence.

predicted YES

While not a fan of the daily mail, this seems good evidence of attacks on US energy structures.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11513927/Substation-attacks-Oregon-Washington-similar-North-Carolina.html

Three attacks in three states leaving tens of thousands without power, one dead.

Seven states reporting threats of the same.

"And in February, three 'white supremacists' pled guilty to planning rifle attacks on substations across the country.

'These three defendants admitted to engaging in a disturbing plot, in furtherance of white supremacist ideology, to attack energy facilities in order to damage the economy and stoke division in our country,' said Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew G Olsen.

@CromlynGames further (and more up to date) evidence, including Christmas Day attacks in 5 states: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/12/30/power-grid-attacks-increasing/10960265002/

predicted YES

@CromlynGames I would buy much more YES if I had the manna. This market must resolve YES and relatively soon.

@CromlynGames did they lose power for more than 24h?

predicted YES

@BjornJurgens

" The outages began in Carthage, North Carolina, around 7 p.m. Saturday and then spread through the majority of central and southern Moore County, Fields said. "

"Crews from Duke Energy, a North Carolina power company, restored power to nearly 7,000 customers since Sunday night, according to a news release.

The company said about 38,000 customers in the area were without power Monday afternoon. Initially, 45,000 customers were affected by the outage.

Saturday to Monday must exceed 24hrs.

Via https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/12/05/north-carolina-power-outage-substation-attack/10837716002/

@CromlynGames "Saturday to Monday must exceed 24hrs." only possible argument would hinge on "since sunday night"; if "since sunday night" means "the people who got the first outages at 7 PM saturday had their power restored before 7 PM sunday", and the restorations proceeded apace such that nobody was left without for >24 hours. That said I think that's very unlikely and I'm not making that argument.

'It's just everything': Families in Moore County relieved power is back after days left in the dark

MOORE COUNTY, N.C. (WTVD) -- After days without electricity and in some cases no water, families in Moore County are back on the grid and trying to get back to life before the county was left in the dark.

For Jessica Lineberry and her daughter, getting back to normal life includes a trip to the grocery store to restock their refrigerator. Families lost hundreds of dollars worth of food over the last four days.

"It was hard," said Lineberry as she stood outside the Food Lion on Monroe Street in Carthage. "Whenever you have children and not having those resources that you used to have."

But relief finally came for families like Lineberry's. Customers started to see power restored as early as Tuesday afternoon.

"You think nothing of when you turn on a light switch, but whenever you don't have power for a few days, and turn on light switches it means... it's just everything," Lineberry continued.

Source: https://abc11.com/community-gets-power-back-moore-county-outage-grid-attack/12541936/

Curfew ends in Moore County as power comes back on, reward being offered in case

MOORE COUNTY, N.C. (WTVD) -- The state of emergency curfew has expired in Moore County as families got back to their routines after power was finally restored. The lights had been out for days after two substations were shot at, leaving tens of thousands of customers in the dark.
[...]

"We encourage people if you've got time, come to Moore County, help out these businesses that have lost millions over the course of three or four or five days," said Pinehurst-Southern Pines Visitors Bureau CEO Phil Werd.

[...]

He spent about $5,000 restocking everything. Thursday's lunch service was the first fully operational day since Saturday, and the place was packed.

Source: https://abc11.com/power-outage-moore-county-restored-nc/12543758/

'It's horrible': Moore County residents recovering from power outage

SOUTHERN PINES, N.C. (WTVD) -- Before thousands of Moore County residents came back online on Wednesday, some residents recalled the experience of being without power for four full days.

Source: https://abc11.com/moore-county-power-outage-restored-blackout/12540500/

The answer to this question is "Yes" if there has been a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, power, or telecommunications infrastructure by any actor by January 31, 2023, 23:59. Successful is defined as consistent reports of the attacked system(s) being inoperable for at least 24 hours.

Yeah, I'm gonna say this one resolves YES.

Nord Stream 1 has been inoperable for 24 hours and is energy infrastructure.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall This question was asked after NS 1/2 attacks, these are excluded

@Gigacasting You're right, I missed the obvious. I will edit the question accordingly

predicted NO

@Gigacasting I now come to think about whether I should additionally exclude Russia's allies in Europe, foremost Belarus. Chances are supposedly not high in this regard, but it would be more precise to evaluate the implied question about Ukraine's allies' risk. I tend to regret that I didn't frame the question as infrastructure risk to Ukraine's U.S. and European allies. I have to think about that.

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