Will someone successfully launder mana into real money?
Mini
10
αΉ€368
2031
60%
chance

Currently, mana is only officially convertible into Manifest tickets, poker buy-ins, and charity donations, none of which I sufficiently consider as money. Will someone find a way to consistently convert mana into real money?

The exchange rate may be less than the 1M:1cent charity exchange rate.

The real money must be a top world reserve currency. The trade does not have to be a direct conversion from mana to currency, intermediate stores of value are allowed. The mechanism must be repeatable more than once. No incidental payments, like collecting mana/money as a fee for something else.

Things that would count:

Buying tickets/merch with mana, and reselling them for real money. Must be done multiple times.

Transferring mana to Beeminder honey money, and converting it to money somehow.

Creating a straw project funded through Manifund, for a project that is considered a fraud by most users for the purpose of mana laundering.

Creating a charity, donating to it through https://manifold.markets/charity and withdrawing all of the money from the charity for non-charitable use.

Manifold allows withdrawing mana for real currency.

Things that would not count:

Buying a banana for 10 mana from another user

P2P payments

Converting mana to crypto (but cashing out the shitcoin would count)

Getting a tax credit or deduction for donating mana

Extreme exploits/hacking/breaking the site

Resolves to my judgement, or a council of moderators if I am inactive.

Proof can be private if sent to me

Get αΉ€600 play money
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It's easy:

  1. Bet 10,000 mana on a roughly 50/50 sporting event.

  2. Bet $10 on the opposite side on a sportsbook.

  3. If you win on the sportsbook, you're done. You've cashed out $10 of mana.

  4. If you lose on the sportsbook, then you accidently "bought" $10 of mana. No problem, simply go back to step 1, doubling your bets this time.

Repeat as many times as necessary, doubling each time. Eventually you'll win your sportsbook bet and you will have successfully cashed out!*

* I take no responsibility for anyone actually trying this.