This prediction market aims to determine whether Neuralink, a neurotechnology company co-founded by Elon Musk, will begin testing its neural chip in humans by the end of 2023. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from Neuralink, or news reports from major news outlets that Futuur deems credible.
The market will resolve as 'Yes' if Neuralink begins its human trials involving implanting a neural chip in living human brains at any point in 2023, and 'No' if it does not.
For this market, "begin testing" refers to the start of the actual implementation of the neural chip in human subjects, regardless of the number of subjects or the duration of the trial. The commencement of testing is not simply determined by receiving regulatory approval, but rather by the actual initiation of human trials as confirmed by Neuralink or reliable news sources.
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"The ideal candidate is a person under 40 years old who is paralyzed in all four limbs, according to the story. Neuralink has gotten FDA approval for human trials, and plans to do 11 surgeries in 2024, followed by 27 in 2025 and 79 in 2026 — before ramping up to 499 in 2027 and more than 22,000 by 2030."
I'm not sure about that 11 in 2024 number:
"Neuralink, which had earlier hoped to receive approval to implant its device in 10 patients, was negotiating a lower number of patients with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) after the agency raised safety concerns, according to current and former employees."