Will ‘The Big One’ earthquake occur along the San Andreas Fault by EOY?
27
Ṁ570Ṁ10kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
'The Big One' refers to an earthquake of 7.8 magnitude or above occurring along the San Andreas Fault. If no earthquakes happen that meet these criteria by midnight 12/31/23 then the question will resolve to No.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ25 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ18 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
People are also trading
Related questions
When will the Big One earthquake happen in the San Andreas Fault?
Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?
16% chance
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
12% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
9% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
20% chance
Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
21% chance
Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?
35% chance
Will San Francisco's Millennium Tower experience any collapse by EOY 2100?
37% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
24% chance