This question will resolve YES If an earthquake[a] strikes the Bay Area[b] on or before November 1, 2024 PT, else resolves NO.

[a] The earthquake must be rated VIII (Severe) or stronger on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale.

[b] "the San Francisco Bay Area" means that the earthquake's epicenter and primary impact must fall within what is commonly referred to as the Bay Area itself—specifically, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Solano, Napa, Sonoma, or Marin counties.

This excludes most of the Central Valley, North Coast, and Sacramento. In edge cases, I will exercise my best judgement. I will not bet in this market.

For reference, of the earthquakes on record, these 10 fit the bill:

1906 San Francisco

1989 Loma Prieta

2014 South Napa

1984 Morgan Hill

1969 Santa Rosa

1892 Vacaville-Winters (April 19, 21)

1868 Hayward

1865 Santa Cruz

1838 San Andreas