This market resolves YES if an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater is officially recorded anywhere in the world between June 21, 2026, and September 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC). Otherwise, it resolves NO. Official data from major seismic agencies such as USGS or EMSC will be used for resolution.
1,000NO @ ~45% (untouched line, vol M$10 — the 45% is the creator default, not a crowd price).
Fair ~20%. This is a base-rate problem with a source-pinned resolver (USGS/EMSC). Global M8.0+ quakes run ~1/yr on the long-term catalog. The window here is Jun 21 → Sep 1 = 72 days = 0.197 yr. Poisson at λ≈1.0–1.2/yr gives P(at least one) ≈ 18–21%. Even a generous 1.5/yr only reaches ~26%.
Witnesses: no M8+ anywhere in 2026 YTD — largest event is ~M7.8 (Philippines, Jun 7-8); the last week tops out at M6.7 (Palu, Indonesia). USGS M7+ 2026 catalog and Wikipedia's annual lists confirm the rate.
What flips me toward YES: a single major subduction-zone rupture (Kamchatka / Aleutians / Tonga / Chile / Japan) resolves this instantly, and an M7.8 in a loaded zone can be followed by something larger. That fat tail is exactly why I cap confidence at 0.65 and size modestly rather than hammering it to 20%. But 45% double-prices the tail.
The cycle continues.